Thursday, March 13, 1997
COMMENTARY:
It’s painful to admit, but the NCAA Championship coming home
this year is unlikelyRob Kariakin
I don’t know what I was thinking. Maybe I had lost my mind, but,
come on; what the hell would you have done with these Bruins?
I was sitting there in front of my office-pool photocopy of the
NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament brackets (just for fun, of course;
gambling is illegal), and I couldn’t for the life of me figure out
what to do with UCLA. Oh, I logically knew what I should do, of
course, but then I started looking at the match-ups and before I
knew what I was doing, school spirit nearly had me penciling the
Bruins into the national champion slot with a final score of
123-12.
It was so much easier just a week ago. Before the NCAA released
the tournament seedings I knew exactly what would happen. Well, not
exactly, but I was down to two choices at least. In my opinion, the
Bruins were either going to lose in the second round or advance to
the Final Four. Period.
They have the talent of a Final Four team, but the problems of a
second round loser. I’ve said all along that the Bruins have
probably the most talented six players of any team in the nation,
and when those guys get clicking they can beat anybody. The problem
is, they can’t seem to do so for 40 minutes running.
Either they start slow, and play catch-up all game before
finally winning at the buzzer or they start fast, rushing to a
double-digit lead, before letting the other team back in the game
early in the second half. Then they watch helplessly as the other
team throws up the potential game-winner at the buzzer. This
season, those shots have hit the rim and bounced out, but how long
can that last?
It’s this second scenario that concerns me. The Bruins have the
horses to make up for a slow start, and 40 minutes is a long time.
Allowing teams to stay close for the entire game is another
matter.
The Bruins lack the ability to put their opponent away,
something a team needs to be considered truly great. To borrow a
bit of head coach Steve Lavin’s favorite metaphor, the Bruins are
like a heavyweight fighter who can’t knock the other guy to the
canvas once they’ve got him on the ropes. They lack that "killer
instinct" necessary to deliver the knockout blow, inevitably
letting their opponent back into the game. While Kentucky and
Kansas blow out weaker teams on their schedules by 40 or 50 points,
UCLA allows the Washington States of the world to take them down to
the wire.
This, I think, just won’t work in the tournament. If the Bruins
allow Indiana to hang within a few points late in the game, the
Hoosiers are bound to hit a six- or seven-point spurt, and win by
three. If they don’t, Wake Forest or Utah sure as hell will.
Sure, UCLA will make the second round (there are IM teams here
that could probably beat Florida International or San Jose State),
but that’s where it’ll end. A sixth- or seventh-seed would do them
in.
Conversely, if the Bruins somehow found that killer instinct,
that mad-dog part of themselves that enjoys embarrassing the
competition, there wouldn’t be anyone who could stop them before
the Final Four.
Those were the options, second round or Final Four. Or so I
thought.
Then the brackets were announced, and I saw UCLA’s possible
opponents. Xavier? Iowa State? Minnesota? Are you kidding me?
"The Bruins can take these guys," I thought. "They match up well
with all of them." I knew I should stop, but before my logic could
intercede, I was marching UCLA through the Midwest Regional. Then
into the championship game. You know how it is. You start thinking
"Well, if they do win this round and I pick against them, I’ll feel
like such a chump."
Luckily, I stopped myself before declaring them champions, but
what I had done was irreversible (See, I had written in pen).
Oh, well. Who knows, maybe they’ll win it all. Right? Right?
Damn. Anybody have any white-out?
* * *
A few more last-second tourney thoughts (OK, maybe a lot
more):
Dark Horses: College of Charleston (SE), Mississippi (MW) and
Pacific (W).
Charleston’s status as a dark horse is based on its seeding and
not at all on its talent level, otherwise it would be considered an
early-round favorite. The latest AP poll ranks the Cougars (28-2)
as the No. 16 team in the country, but for some reason the NCAA
made them a 12th seed, something you would expect for a team in the
No. 24-28 range. First-round opponent Maryland, the fifth seed in
the Southeast, is actually ranked six spots below Charleston by AP,
and probable second-round opponent Arizona is only one spot ahead
at No. 15. In other words, it wouldn’t be much of an upset for this
12th seed to make the Sweet 16.
Eighth-seeded Mississippi continues a Cinderella season with a
spot in the weakest bracket in the tournament; other than UCLA and
Cincinnati, there’s no one in the Midwest that the Rebels couldn’t
take on a good day, and they couldn’t face the Bruins or the
Bearcats until the Elite Eight. Probable second-round opponent
Minnesota, the top seed, is ripe for the picking, and likely Sweet
16 opponents Clemson or Tulsa have lost four of nine and four of
10, respectively, entering the tournament.
Fortunate bracketing is even more important for Pacific. To but
it bluntly, UOP doesn’t have much talent, but against the teams
it’ll face, it doesn’t need much; it would only take wins against
such perennial powerhouses as St. Joseph’s and either Valparaiso or
Boston College for the overachieving Tigers (24-5) to reach the
Sweet 16. In another seeding, UOP would probably go home on Friday;
in this one, it might go to San Jose instead.
Stinker: Minnesota (MW)
Minnesota is one of those teams you just have a feeling about;
one of those teams you know is destined to fall to earth early with
a resounding "splat." It’s illogical (hey, it’s the No. 3 team in
the nation), but you just know. Don’t worry, you’re not alone.
Take a look around your dorm or office pool, and you’ll notice
that, despite a No. 1 seed, no one has the Golden Gophers as a
Final Four team (with the possible exception of that one jerk in
every poll who intentionally picks teams no one else does, going
against his own feelings about who will win in the hope of being
the only person to get that one right). My advice? Don’t fight it.
If you absolutely need some logical reason to back you up, there is
the recent history of flameouts by highly regarded Big 10 teams in
the tournament, not the least of which being Purdue, last year’s
No. 1 in the Midwest. A lot of people had similar feelings about
that team, and most of them were prepared when the Boilermakers
crashed and burned in the second round. Look for Minnesota to do
the same this time around.
The Pick: North Carolina (E)
I know, I know … I hate to say it as much as you hate to hear
it. As the only other school with half the winning hoops tradition
that we have, I hate to see Carolina win national championships.
They’re already the winningest team in history; the only edge we
have over them is the number of championships, and each one they
win brings them closer.
Unfortunately, it’s going to happen anyway. Who else could do
it? Kentucky can’t make it without Derek Anderson, Wake Forest can
only ride Tim Duncan for so long before his back gives out, and the
Bruins simply don’t have enough time to work their bugs. As for
Kansas: yes, it may be the No. 1 team in the country, and, yes, it
may have whooped UCLA at Pauley, but those of you who were there
know what I mean when I say the team just didn’t look like
championship material. That just leaves North Carolina. Like it or
not.
Kariakin has cracked the secret to winning your tournament
office pool: the brackets, a dart board and a six-pack of Keystone.
Never fails.