Monday, August 3, 1998
Running out of gas on the information superhighway
PROGRESS: Computers advance as cars, rest of technology
stalls
So, I’m sitting, watching cable television, hoping the Nielsen
ratings people don’t call because I’ll be too embarrassed to tell
them that I’m watching the Weather Channel.
It’s hot.
The power is out because natural selection decided to make this
summer a battle for the air conditioners. Blackouts fall all over
the valley as I sit here at work in the dark (literally of course),
which would be OK except for the fact that I need power.
I work for an Internet publishing company amongst a cove of
small businesses trying to make their way the world of computers.
Progress needs power, which at the moment we don’t have. Computers
are at the eye of the storm of progress. And just as the darkness
floods the sidewalks, my brother walks in and says, "Can you
believe this power outage?"
The Economist once said: "If cars had developed at the same pace
as microprocessors over the past two decades, a typical car would
now cost less than $5 and get 250,000 miles to the gallon." But we
have a fuel shortage. Can you say "irony"?
Yes, I can say irony. But before I break into some Mr. Rogers
retrospective, I have a few issues with what The Economist wrote.
Yes, computers are fantastic. I love them, but The Economist failed
to mention that the car would be unable to run after two years.
Why? Because of the speed at which computer innovation advances.
The Silicon Valley creates bigger, better and faster computers
every few months.
Just as I’m upshifting my complaining into the next gear, my
brother says, "Hundreds of computers in this whole building, and
they’re all dead. That’s it. The work day’s over. I’m going to the
bathroom, then we’ll go."
He’s right. It’s just as well, because these computers will be
obsolete by morning – OK, maybe not by morning, but within two
years. How would this fit in The Economist’s world? Let’s say that
you put 1,000 miles on the car every month; that means by the end
of two years you have 24,000 miles on your car, but you’re unable
to go down the street because everyone else passes you by because
they’ve bought better machines. Your car was the best on the market
when you bought it, but now the parts are old and you’re forced to
upgrade in one way or another. The 1996 Mercedes you bought when it
was new on the market is now a clunker – forget the Pintos, those
have been long since junked – it’s your Mercedes that won’t run
anymore. State-of-the-art is now scrap metal.
I know that I might be a little too harsh, so here’s a little
compensation: Over that same two-year period you would only use
1/10 of a gallon of gasoline. Let me reiterate: You would only use
1/10 of a gallon over 730 days of owning the car.
Planned obsolescence aside, computers do wonderful things when
the power’s working, but it’s still dark.
My brother’s observation is right: lines and lines of polo
shirts, khakis and business suits flow out of their offices through
the lobby and out the door.
Today the business day ends early, and down the hall people are
speaking the international language – no, not love, math – in the
form of ones and zeros that make up the simplest form of computer
language.
Just as one of the nerds-turned-rebel-without-a-credit-limit
makes some Steven Hawking pun about the dark depths of the
universe, one of them breaks in with a little bit of humor: "I
think that this is the building’s way of telling us to go home." Is
that right? Now, I disagree with him; if you think the building is
talking to you, then that’s the time to go home (and then download
some "advanced psychological software").
Besides, I’m not sure if this is the time to go home. Why? The
traffic. Apparently, the power’s out around the area because cars
are packed up to enter the freeway just outside the building. Now,
I’m sure traffic would thin out if the size of cars kept pace with
the size of computers.
Contemporary computers are just a fraction of the size of the
mainframe computers when the Information Age was just beginning.
Those 25-year-old dinosaurs took up an entire room. Now, you can
get more power in a laptop computer. Unfortunately, the
computer-car connection doesn’t quite work because as cars would
shrink, so would people, and we can’t have that, can we?
And not everyone has a computer. The current saturation level of
computer users is about half the population and growing rapidly.
But there are thousands of people who buy their computer and can’t
use it.
How about that? A $2,500 purchase just sits in the closet or is
resold in the class.
Now, back to The Economist. Can you imagine if people who
purchased a car had the same problems? After taking their little
technological wonder out for a little while, they then decide that
they really don’t need it. They just let it sit in the garage next
to Christmas decorations and power tools. Yet another problem for
computer users, right?
But that’s good for the economy, isn’t it? The more headaches
people have, the more problems there are to solve, the more jobs
become available for people, and the world goes round. Whenever
this situation comes up (and it recurs periodically), I think of
those visionaries of the ’50s who thought that the future would
bring solutions to problems – and it has. But then there are other
problems that are created by the solutions.
Problems revisit computer users often. People call in to the
tech support people, and they present their problem. Guess what one
of the most common solutions is? "Plug in the computer." Remember
The Economist metaphor? Basically, the most common solution to our
imaginary car is to "start the car."
Scary, don’t you think? If people are so shocked by the sight of
a computer then how can they be expected to perform more complex
operations with the computer? More problems to solve, but I suppose
that computers aren’t as simple as throwing on a switch and
clicking away.
Again, back to The Economist’s little metaphor. People who drive
cars are above the age of 16 (usually), and their parents teach
them how to drive when they get their permit (or whenever they feel
like it).
Computer use is a little different; instead of parents teaching
their children, children teach parents. In ele-mentary school
classes across the country, students teach their instructors how to
use the computer. Can you imagine driving down the street and
seeing 10-year-olds driving just as well as their parents ever
could?
And public transportation in the computer industry is nearly
non-existent. People are downloading, interfacing and e-mailing
their brains out. Computers process thousands of instructions in a
fraction of a second (provided you have power).
But I’m still stuck in the dark. Unfortunately, my computer
can’t do anything about the heat, but it would be nice if I had a
car that cost $5 and did 250,000 miles per gallon, so I could go
home and get out the dark and out of the heat.
As time slips away from the pre-sent, we find that we’re alone
with computers that can’t do anything. My brother returns from
going to the bathroom in complete darkness – which in and of itself
is a "technological marvel" – and says, "Let’s go. I think right
about now I could go for one of those $5 cars."
"So, could I. So could I."
Hill is a fourth-year communications studies student. E-mail
comments to [email protected].