By Michael Falcone
Daily Bruin Senior Staff
There is no question Al Gore needs California’s 54
electoral votes in order to win the presidency, but a study
released this week raises questions about his chances to carry the
state on Nov. 7.
A Public Policy Institute of California report revealed
undecided voters and supporters of Ralph Nader and other
third-party candidates have been slowly siphoning votes from Gore
in the state.
While the state poll reported the vice president has dropped 4
percentage points since September, he still leads Texas Governor
George W. Bush 44 to 39 percent.
Among those polled by the PPIC, a non-profit, non-partisan
policy research organization, education ranked as the No. 1 issue
voters would most like to hear presidential candidates talk
about.
Foreign policy, health care, social security and taxes were next
on the list.
Regardless of their preference for president, the likely voters
who were polled said Gore would do a better job of handling
education and health care, while they favored Bush on tax issues
and the military.
But the PPIC study was not the only one released this week that
carries a political impact.
Tuesday, the Santa Monica-based RAND Corporation published a
report criticizing standardized tests used in Gov. Bush’s
state by comparing it to a national test.
The RAND study found that Texas test scores soared while the
national scores showed only moderate gains, reflecting national
averages.
Similarly, when the two tests were compared in terms of scores
between white and minority students, the Texas test showed a narrow
gap that was decreasing while the other tests showed the
opposite.
Due to the discrepancy in the two tests, RAND public information
director Jess Cook said the study raises serious questions about
aspects of the Texas accountability system.
But Lindsey Kozberg, a spokeswoman for the Bush campaign,
questioned the RAND study’s timing and its findings.
Kozberg said the study directly contradicts another RAND report
released in July, which identified the Texas and North Carolina
school systems as among the best in the nation in terms of
promoting student achievement.
But in an e-mail, the Gore campaign touted the study as
“devastating the validity” of Bush’s education
reforms successes in Texas.
The e-mail quoted Stephen Klein, a senior RAND researcher who
helped lead the study as saying he thinks “”˜the Texas
miracle’ is a myth.”
California, a state where registered Democrats outnumber
Republicans 47 to 36 percent, gave its electoral votes to the
Democratic candidate in 1992 and 1996.
Pre-election poll numbers show Bush leading Gore by more than 20
electoral votes nationwide, according to the U.S. News and World
Report. But with 17 states, including Florida, Pennsylvania and
Michigan still listed as “toss-ups,” the election is
far from decided.
The toss-up states are where Gore and Bush are focusing their
campaigning in the 13 days leading up to the election, but unlike
Bush, Gore had no plans to travel to the Golden State as of
Tuesday.
California has been important for Gore this election cycle, not
only because it’s the state with the largest number of
electoral votes, but because the state is home to some of the vice
president’s biggest campaign contributors.
According to data from the non-partisan Center for Responsive
Politics, Gore has raised about $4.5 million in California ““
more than any other state.
Bush has raised about twice that amount in California, however
his campaign donations were highest in Texas where he has so far
collected more that $16 million.
Bush, who is still attempting to overtake Gore in California,
has scheduled a visit to the state next week. On Tuesday, the Bush
campaign had yet to confirm the date or location of this upcoming
campaign stop.
Kozberg said the campaign has a simple philosophy in
California.
“We’re going to keep doing exactly what we’ve
been doing in the last year ““Â wage a strong, consistent
and committed campaign at the grassroots level,” he said.
With reports from Timothy Kudo, Daily Bruin Senior Staff.
PRESIDENCY: STATE OF THE STATES Using state
polling numbers, US News and World Report predicts which candidate
is leading in each state. According to the US News estimate, Bush
is leading Gore 197 electoral votes to 171, with more than 170
electoral votes still up for grabs. Toss up Leaning Bush Leaning
Gore Solid Bush Solid Gore SOURCE: US News and World Report
Original graphic by MAGGIE WOO/Daily Bruin Web adaptation by ROBERT
LIU/Daily Bruin Senior Staff