Tuesday, March 31

Polling in elections: an odds-maker’s nightmare


Al Gore and George W. Bush have been on a perpetual roller
coaster ride in their quest for the presidency, judging by the
CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll which has been in flux throughout the
election.

On Oct. 22, the poll showed Bush with an 11 point lead over Gore
““ 51 to 40 percent ““ but two days later, Gore led Bush
by a point. On the 27th, the poll said Gore was down by 13 points
““ 52 to 39 percent ““ but in three days, Gore had
made up 10 points.

The volatility of the polls has left some wondering if the
numbers mean anything.

Political writer William Saletan argues in an article that
because both USA Today and CNN are in the business of news, it is
practical for The Gallup Organization to produce new numbers every
day.

“If Gallup’s numbers don’t change, then
where’s the news?” he wrote.

He pointed out that a statement on Gallup’s Web site
stated that its poll seeks to maximize daily changes and is
extremely sensitive to voter sentiment.

“Our objective is to pick up movements up and down in
reaction to the day-to-day events of the campaign,” the site
reads.

Results of other polls, such as the Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby survey,
contrast those of the Gallup poll in poll-taking methods, using
what Saletan called a “fixed dichotomy of constants and
variables” to track the candidates.

While the Gallup tries to capture daily fluctuations, Saletan
said, Reuters tries to filter them out.

Compiled by Scott Wong, Daily Bruin Contributor.


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