I am more frightened by nuclear weapons in the hands of
governments than by any in the hands of terrorists.
Even before the recent surge in terrorist activity, pundits
pontificated on the possibility of a terrorists acquiring and using
nuclear weapons. However, we heard remarkably little about the
threat of an actual nuclear war. The whole topic seems to have
become passé.
Maybe it’s time for a little reality check. It is true
that al-Qaeda operatives have tried to purchase nuclear materials
that could be used for a bomb or radiation dispersal device. How
many nuclear weapons, however, are terrorist groups actually known
to have? Zero. The only entities known for sure to possess nuclear
weapons are nations: the United States, Russia, China, Great
Britain, France, India, Pakistan and Israel. And according to the
Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, they have between 25,000 and 33,000
of them.
In a true nuclear attack, terrorists would use a uranium or
plutonium fission bomb, similar to those dropped on Hiroshima and
Nagasaki. But nations have fusion weapons that are thousands of
times more powerful. Just one ordinary fusion bomb can have a yield
of two megatons ““ the yield of all the bombs used by all
sides in the six years of World War II. The Second World War has
been packed into one bomb.
A terrorist attack with a nuclear weapon would likely result in
hundreds or even thousands of immediate deaths from the fires and
collapsing buildings and many more from radiation sickness in the
weeks to come. There would be billions of dollars in property
damage. The survivors would overwhelm local hospitals and emergency
services.
But nations in a full-scale nuclear war can kill billions. The
lucky ones would die instantly from the shock wave, searing heat
and massive doses of radiation. The unfortunate survivors would
face other agonies: radiation sickness and infectious disease in
the absence of medical care, poisoning of the air, soil and water
by radioactive substances, starvation, the threat of miscarriage
and deformed children and potentially paralyzing despair.
Everything they and their ancestors worked for, the hopes they had
for their children and the prospects for advancing civilization
would be destroyed.
A few hundred nuclear warheads are estimated to be enough to
trigger a nuclear winter (smaller numbers would have weaker, but
still noticeable effects). Black soot from burning cities would be
sucked into the upper regions of the atmosphere, blocking out
sunlight. These conditions could last for months. Global average
temperatures would drop at least 10°C (12°F), enough to
devastate agriculture. The effects would be especially pronounced
in tropical areas, where many crops absolutely depend on steady
warm temperatures.
The fireballs resulting from the explosions would produce
thousands of tons of oxides of nitrogen. These gases would react
with stratospheric ozone, eating away at the survivors’
protection from the sun’s ultraviolet rays. Increased UV
exposure leads to skin cancer and suppression of the immune system.
In a population already weakened by radiation and lack of food,
this could be disastrous. In addition, UV light damages crops and
would wreak havoc with the ocean food chain on which we all
ultimately depend.
Nuclear winter and ozone layer depletion would result in
conditions not seen on Earth since the comet or asteroid impact
that killed the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. There can be no
doubt that nuclear war would cause mass extinction. While this may
seem a trivial concern in the face of so much human suffering,
weakened ecosystems would make conditions even more difficult for
the human survivors of a nuclear war.
I do not wish to downplay the very real threat of a terrorist
nuclear attack. However, the fact remains that terrorist groups are
not known to have any nuclear bombs. They cannot kill billions of
people, plunge the Earth into darkness or imitate the biological
effects of an impact from outer space. Only governments can do
those things.
Here lies our reason for hope. There is not much you can
personally do about terrorists. (Report your neighbors if you see
them stockpiling plutonium.) But the United States and other
governments can be pressured through the democratic process. Write
letters to politicians. (You can look up your senators and
representatives at http://congress.org.) Learn about
candidates’ positions on nuclear disarmament ““ and
vote. Go to a protest. Demand that the people representing us in
government work for a safer world.
We, the citizens of planet Earth, are being held hostage to the
nations’ thirst for power. It is time to act.