It would be wishful thinking to say 2003 will be better than
2002. While we were all enjoying winter break, the communist
government of North Korea began reactivating its nuclear reactors,
thus creating another international situation focused on weapons of
mass destruction in Asia.
Meanwhile, the war against Iraq to remove Saddam Hussein and the
threat of weapons of mass destruction seems a near certainty. But
however tempting it might be to diagnose the situations in Iraq and
North Korea as the same thing, a closer look reveals they’re
not very similar.
North Korea already has nuclear weapons, and they have already
violated the terms of a 1994 agreement during the Clinton
administration. They have also decided to reactivate their nuclear
reactors, located at Yongbyon, in an attempt to negotiate a
non-aggression treaty with the United States. The regime of King
Jong Il feels isolated from the world; their inclusion in the
“Axis of Evil” justifies his nation’s actions as
a rational means of self-defense. However, North Korea’s
rationale is wrong and factually incorrect. The appeal for its own
national security is flawed because by reactivating its reactors it
jeopardizes the security of Japan, China, South Korea and the
Philippines.
North Korea hopes the United States will placate them in the
same way the Clinton administration negotiated the 1994 agreement
to seal the Yongbyon reactors in exchange for two electricity
generating light water reactors and fuel oil shipments from Japan,
South Korea and the United States.
In reality, North Korea’s attempt at a negotiated
settlement is nothing more than an attempt at gaining an
appeasement from the United States.
The problem is, appeasement does not work. British Prime
Minister Neville Chamberlain appeased Adolf Hitler prior to the
outbreak of World War II. Hitler’s acquisition of
Czechoslovakia did not deter him from invading Poland in 1939. The
largest land war in Europe followed shortly after.
Likewise, the communist government of North Korea is willing to
threaten its fellow Koreans with nuclear annihilation as a means of
negotiating from strength. Seoul, the South Korean capital, would
be wiped out in minutes with one nuclear armed artillery shell.
North Korea is also the largest exporter of SCUD missiles to the
rest of the world. Some of these missiles are capable of reaching
Japan, Okinawa and the Philippines; all of which are strategic
locations for the U.S. Navy, Air Force and Marines. The situation
on the Korean Peninsula must be resolved diplomatically, otherwise,
unlike Iraq, an armed confrontation would inevitably result in a
nuclear exchange. The death toll would be in the millions.
It’s deductive reasoning to conclude that the situations
in Iraq and North Korea are similar. Their similarities end where
their differences begin.
North Korea has nuclear weapons right now and is willing to use
them against their fellow Koreans. Like a suicide bomber, their
only rationale is, “give in to our demands or suffer the
consequences.” Catastrophic consequences, as promised by
North Korean officials, would suggest an invasion of South Korea
and a nuclear attack on the city of Seoul.
The North Koreans have nothing to lose and everything to gain if
the United States negotiates with them. History dictates that
appeasement leads inevitably to confrontation. Therefore the best
strategy for North Korea is isolation, and diplomacy, not
appeasement.