The obstacles to peace and the obstacles to war in the Middle
East lie in two strategic alliances. One is the alliance between
Palestinian President Yasser Arafat and Iraqi Dictator Saddam
Hussein; the other alliance is between President Bush and Israeli
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.
Each alliance is working to destroy the other. The historic
alliance between Arafat and Hussein dates back to the first
Palestinian Intifada, or uprising, which began in 1987 and the
first Gulf War in 1991. The unwavering Palestinian support of the
then occupying regime of Hussein caused them to lose international
support for their cause when the whole world turned against the
Iraqi dictator. Lack of support led to the end of the first
Intifada. This act of friendship did not go unnoticed by Hussein
who today openly supports Palestinian terror organizations and
donates $25,000 to the families of homicide bombers and $10,000 to
those who were injured fighting “the Zionist enemy.”
Meanwhile, Hussein claims that the U.N.-imposed oil-for-food
embargo doesn’t give him enough money to feed his people.
Adhering to this gesture of friendship from Hussein, Arafat is
now actively involved in stepping up the violence and homicide
bombings in Israel in order to take international attention away
from Iraq so that a U.S.-led war may be avoided. The Palestinian
Authority’s recent Cairo meetings with Hamas, the failure of
the Chairman to enact reforms within the authority and the
coordination of attacks between Arafat’s Al-Aqsa Martyrs
Brigades and Hamas are all evidence of this.
This alliance of terror is working together with a goal of
avoiding a U.S.-led war on Iraq and a goal of destroying the state
of Israel through the continued use of terrorism. Recent Israeli
intelligence testifies to this fact by reporting that a large-scale
“mega-attack,” similar in magnitude to the attacks of
September 11, 2001, is currently being coordinated by all the
Palestinian terror organizations with the Palestinian Authority as
the “central command.”
In opposition to this lies the alliance whose goal is to topple
the Iraqi regime before violence in Middle East reaches
catastrophic proportions. In order to continue his war on
terrorism, President Bush wants to disarm Hussein, essentially
toppling his regime. His hopes are that Iraq’s fall would
eliminate yet another terrorist base and another source of income
for the international terrorist organizations. He also hopes to end
the threat posed by Hussein against his neighbors, namely Turkey,
Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel, thereby stabilizing the region.
Unfortunately for Bush, he would lose a lot of support if he
simply began invading Iraq, so he must first go through a series of
diplomatic steps disguised as actions to avoid war. The main
problem for Bush is not the diplomatic steps he must take, but
rather keeping violence in Israel and the territories relatively
low, creating an illusion of peace. He is calling upon his Israeli
counterpart, Prime Minister Sharon, to avoid any large-scale,
anti-terror operations in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, while Bush
tries to prevent further Palestinian terror attacks.
This is a difficult task for Sharon because he is facing a wave
of increased violence from Arafat, who is trying to help Hussein.
Sharon is therefore being pressured by Bush to keep things quiet
until he can begin his war against Hussein. Meanwhile his citizens,
who vote in January, are pressuring Sharon to do whatever is
necessary to halt further attacks. There are two probable outcomes
to this desperate situation.
One involves the Palestinians succeeding in unleashing a
relentless wave of terror upon Israel that will develop into a
full- scale war, in which neighboring countries may get involved to
help the Palestinians destroy the democratic state. This would
force the United States to intervene.
The second, more likely, scenario is that Bush will succeed in
invading Iraq before the situation in Israel gets out of hand. This
will result in greater U.S. control over the oil market, making it
easier for Bush to fight a bankrupt terrorism-network. Israel will
persist in its large-scale assault on the territories, thus
crushing the terror organizations and the now powerless Palestinian
Authority. The result would be a long term but relatively quiet
occupation in Israel.
Either way, any hopes of peace in the region will be a distant
memory.