The success of the recall may entail the state’s future
failure ““ especially if Gov.-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger is
unable to compromise with the experienced Democrats who will remain
in positions of power after he becomes governor.
On Oct. 7, the people of California spoke, or perhaps, they
yelled. For proponents of the recall, the election was an
overwhelming success. Not only did the recall pass, but a
Republican candidate, Schwarzenegger, was swept into the
governor’s office by a landslide. The people of the state, in
an emotional act of catharsis, ended former Gov. Davis’
30-year public service career with a bang.
However, now that the hoopla of the election is over, the state
must continue to function, and I have strong doubts that
Schwarzenegger can lead this state in a time of continuing crisis.
There are two major obstacles facing Schwarzenegger ““ the
process of administration-building and the inevitability of next
year’s massive budget crisis.
Schwarzenegger must begin his governorship by replacing crucial
officers, such as the state finance director, and finding hundreds
of staffers for the office of the governor (not to mention the
eventual replacement of about 1,000 commissioners, panelists and
regents who are all still loyal to Davis). This drawn-out process
will be difficult and distracting because Schwarzenegger will be
hard-pressed to find enough talent to fill the ranks in the short
time he has before he takes power.
Part of this problem stems from the fact that the Republicans
don’t hold a single statewide elected office, severely
limiting the talent pool from which Schwarzenegger can draw. Couple
the lack of staffers with the hundreds of unsigned bills on
Davis’ desk and new bills sure to be passed within the next
few weeks, and the state government grinds to a halt until
Schwarzenegger can solidify his grip on the office. Even under Gov.
Davis, the state budget last year was as late as it has ever been,
nearly creating a situation where state employees could not be
paid. It is not much of a stretch to assume Schwarzenegger will
have similar ““ or worse ““ problems with a totally new
staff and new ideas.
All of this will be compounded by the coming financial crisis,
as substantial deficits are predicted for the coming financial
year. The question is not if the crisis will come, but when. The
governor’s budget is due by January, not long after
Schwarzenegger officially takes the reins.
During the campaign, Schwarzenegger never offered any real
solution to the budget crisis; he promised no tax increases, and
said he would end the car tax. Yet, at the same time, he promised
strong spending for both education and public programs.
Clearly, the revenue shortfall for this year’s budget will
be felt as soon as Schwarzenegger is forced to make some extremely
hard choices ““ choices that he never fully explained to the
people of this state. Also, Schwarzenegger’s relationship
with the Democrat-controlled state legislature remains to be seen.
If Davis couldn’t successfully collaborate with the
Democrats, I doubt Schwarzenegger will do much better.
Despite his campaign promises, Schwarzenegger will likely be
forced to raise taxes and cut services in order to shoulder the
coming crisis. Similarly, this means student fees will probably
rise again within the next year.
Looking to the future, the recall clearly becomes a horrible
mistake. Not only was it anti-democratic, but it deepens the state
crisis by replacing a seasoned political veteran with a novice who
is almost guaranteed to break some of his promises. Schwarzenegger
lacks a workable plan, ability and vision; the crisis will simply
overrun him.
If the people of California are to face the coming crisis, we
will have to mobilize ““ the only way to defeat education
cuts, medical cuts and an unfair and lopsided budget is to become
involved in the political process. If the legislature feels
supported by the public, it will be less willing to cave in to
Schwarzenegger’s demands. Perhaps one of the seasoned
legislators will be able to come up with a plan that will actually
improve the situation in California.
Corpuz is the Bruin Democrats’ external vice
president.