With his victories this week in Virginia and Tennessee, the
Kerry Express rumbles on toward the inevitable. John Kerry’s
main rivals, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean and Sen. John Edwards,
may not exit the race for several weeks, but barring a Clintonesque
scandal, Kerry will be the Democratic nominee for president of the
United States. Kerry’s southern success Feb. 10 has
demonstrated that the junior senator from Massachusetts can win in
every region of the country.
Prior to this week, Kerry’s impressive list of victories
included wins in the Midwest, New England, the Mid-Atlantic, the
Pacific Northwest and the Southwest. He had won everywhere but the
South. The remaining doubt about Kerry’s electability (and
there wasn’t much according to exit polls from Maine to
Arizona) revolved around whether a liberal politician from
Massachusetts could appeal to Dixie Democrats and Independents.
Those doubts have disappeared.
The Democratic Party has united around Kerry with stunning
alacrity. Just four weeks ago, Kerry was running behind Dean in
Iowa and New Hampshire. Since Kerry’s upset victory in the
Iowa caucuses, Democratic voters and elites across the country have
fallen in line behind what many perceive as their best hope of
ousting President Bush in the fall.
Kerry has won all but two contests (Oklahoma and South Carolina)
and has been the beneficiary of every major endorsement made since
the New Hampshire primary. Despite the fact Kerry only has accrued
roughly one-quarter of the delegates he needs to clinch the
nomination, most Americans believe Kerry will be the guy. Other
Democratic candidates are increasingly mentioned in only one of two
contexts: When will they leave, or will they be Kerry’s
running-mate?
For the Democrats, this rush to judgment is out of character.
Although the Republicans have made a habit of coalescing around the
next in line, Democrats tend to put their prospective nominees
through tough primary fights that are not usually resolved until
well after the leaves have appeared on the trees. This year, most
of the country is still covered in snow, and the Democrats have
already decided who they want to represent them in the fall. What
in the name of George W. Bush is going on?
Almost one year before anybody voted in the 2000 primaries,
two-thirds of Republican governors had publicly endorsed their
compatriot from Texas. The GOP’s electoral success at the
presidential level since 1980 has been partially attributed to the
relative ease with which they have been able to achieve a united
front.
An early coronation does not always produce a victory in the
fall, but there are important political reasons for avoiding a
bloody intra-party battle. First, fighting in public and airing
dirty laundry only gives the opposition fodder. Second, the earlier
candidates stop defending themselves and attacking their fellow
partisans, the sooner he can attack the other side. Third, active
campaigning costs money. The less money spent to win the
nomination, the more money available for use in the general
election. Finally, a party that unites early projects confidence to
the electorate at large.
The campaign results thus far suggest the wisdom of such a
strategy. Kerry has come through the primary season relatively
unscathed by his opponents. In upcoming contests, it would be a
surprise if Edwards or Dean went all-out to dirty Kerry. With a
seemingly united party, nobody wants to be seen as damaging the
Democrats’ chances of winning the White House.
Also, due to his continuing success, Kerry has been able to set
President Bush squarely in his crosshairs. During the past two
weeks, has anybody heard Kerry mention his rivals’ names in
public?
For the Democratic front-runner, it has to be all about the
perceived failures of the president. Money matters a great deal.
Kerry might not be able to outspend his general election opponent,
but he will have plenty of cash on hand to try if the Democratic
race is indeed basically over.
Kerry has rejected matching federal funds so he can spend an
unlimited amount of money from now until the convention. This will
automatically counter the inherent advantage enjoyed by an
incumbent president unchallenged for his party’s nomination.
Finally, the Democrats exude confidence right now.
They feel the president is vulnerable. They feel he is
vulnerable on Iraq, vulnerable on the economy, vulnerable on jobs
and vulnerable on military service. In Virginia, over 90 percent of
voters told pollsters they believe Kerry can win in November.
Granted, there weren’t any Republicans in that sample.
Granted, Bob Dole was anointed early on in 1996 and got trounced by
the incumbent Bill Clinton. Granted, it is only February, and the
general election is still nine months away. By then, the situation
in Iraq may have stabilized, the economy might recover, and the
Bush campaign might be able to produce a few more old pay stubs and
some effective commercials portraying Kerry throwing away his
medals or posing for pictures with Jane Fonda.
But grant the Democrats this: They are united, and, as Abraham
Lincoln once said, united we stand, divided we fall.
Cohen is a graduate student in the
political science department.