Right before Iran’s seventh parliamentary elections in
February, two reformist journals, Shargh and Yase No, were
illegally shut down while the Iranian judiciary ordered the
filtering of some pro-reform Web sites. Later, eight people died
and several more were injured in post-election clashes. But these
issues were only the tip of the iceberg in an election rife with
the censorship of opposing political views.
The conservative Guardian Council ““ ruled by Iran’s
religious clerics and hardliners ““ had already barred over
2,500 candidates, mostly reformists, from running in the election.
They prevented any real competition to their power and ultimately
won a comfortable majority.
A result of this political censorship can be seen through the
election of conservative candidate Haddad-adel, who was this
year’s top winner in Tehran after being nearly dead-last in
the parliamentary elections four years ago. Incidentally, his son
has married the daughter of Iran’s head supreme spiritual
leader, Ayatollah Khameni ““ a main conservative force behind
the elections.
The biggest reform party in opposition to the conservatives, the
Islamic Iran Participation Front, boycotted the election after its
candidates were banned from running. But the non-participation of
the reformists only helped the conservatives.
In Iranian electoral politics, voter participation has
historically been important. Many Iranians feel they have to vote
because the current regime uses a system of intimidation to garner
votes.
Traditionally, people have registered their disapproval of the
electoral system by casting blank or voided ballots. In the capital
city of Tehran, election turnouts radically differed between
reformist and conservative sources ““ 15 and 50 percent,
respectively. Either way, the turnouts were low.
The last local council elections in Iran proved the
conservatives can count on their supporters to show up, while the
reformist voters, as well as a considerable number of disillusioned
people who have lost trust in the system, will stay home or cast
blank or void votes. In either case, the conservatives win.
In the absence of efficient political institutions, the
hardliners have been encouraged to return to power. Under the
current circumstances, it seems the general public has no intention
to confront this situation, except through peaceful silence.
The significance of this election is that it’s just
beginning a transitional period during which the reformists are
reluctantly handing power over to the conservatives. Over the next
14 or 15 months, until the election of the next president, we have
to wait and see how reformist president Mohammad Khatami can work
with a conservative parliament that has come to power through a
parliamentary coup. There is already speculation that a new
conservative parliament will not endorse members of President
Khatami’s cabinet. If everything goes smoothly for
Iran’s hardliners, the conservatives will establish their
cleric junta.
But while the conservatives are trying to end the reform
movement in parliament and government, they have not necessarily
ended it within society.
The new political setting will affect policy making in different
ways. The legislators’ power in the last parliament was very
limited. The conservative Guardians Council blocked their efforts,
but legislators did have the ability to voice their concern about
important issues and bring them to public attention. But that was
about the extent of their power, because the president and the
executive body had no interest in pushing it further.
In contrast, the conservatives are more clandestine when it
comes to decision-making and they often warp issues so that they
appear linked to Islamic concerns.
The conservatives are well aware of the necessity of bringing
major changes to remain in power. Much like the Italian communist
parties of the 1970s, they love power and will do anything to keep
it.
They do not like to take issues to the public, which is why they
are against democracy. They see themselves as shepherds,
legitimately directing the society toward a greater good. This
conviction, supported by religious beliefs, is far from the
paradigm that exists at the heart of a democracy.
However, the conservatives do understand priorities like
economic issues. They pay serious attention to investment and
unemployment, but won’t let a woman decide what is good for
the society.
In the coming period, a reduction of freedoms will be the rule,
with few exceptions. Conservatives will try to push back everything
they can and then give people a few drops of democracy at a
time.
Roshandel is a visiting assistant professor in the political
science department at Duke University. He has taught at the
University of Tehran in Iran and at UCLA.