Take a look at the numbers and trends leading up to
Saturday’s matchup between UCLA and Oregon.
The most eye-popping is that UCLA leads the conference in eight
different defensive statistical categories, including run defense,
in which the Bruins allow a meager 50 yards per game.
What? The same UCLA team that finished ninth in the conference a
year ago and won 10 games despite allowing 35 points or more in six
of them?
Oregon, which started the year off with such promise, is coming
off an embarrassing 45-24 loss to the California Golden Bears, a
game in which the Ducks’ offense gained a season-low 70 yards
on the ground and was, for all intents and purposes, shut down.
For an offense that relies on big plays and efficiency, the
Ducks had neither against the Bears. Oregon was 2 of 10 on
third-down conversions and the longest play of the first half came
on a 25-yard, fake field goal pass.
And even without Marshawn Lynch, the Pac-10’s best running
back, for much of the game, the Cal offense managed 235 yards
rushing behind a 163-yard effort from backup Justin Forsett.
Chris Markey must be licking his chops to run against a depleted
Oregon defensive line that has allowed a 100-yard rusher in four
consecutive games.
On a positive note, the Ducks return home Saturday to host the
Bruins at Autzen Stadium, a venue renowned for its intimidating
atmosphere. Oregon owns a 61-17 record there since 1994.
But as for the Bruins? They own a 12-2 record all-time at Autzen
Stadium and are looking for the fifth win in their last six tries
in Eugene.
The bottom line? All of this favors the powder-blue and gold
Saturday.
But excuse me for being skeptical, because I’m not buying
it.
While I must give due respect to UCLA’s dominant
turnaround on defense this season, it couldn’t have been much
worse than it was.
And when you play teams like Utah, Rice, Stanford, Arizona and
Washington to begin the season, chances are, the defense is going
to look really good. Those teams share a combined record of 11-20
and average 306.4 yards per game.
The best offensive team UCLA has faced so far was Washington,
which ranks 45th in the nation with an average of 367.67 yards per
game ““ and that’s the Bruins’ only loss this
season.
How about Oregon? The Ducks are currently fourth nationally in
total offense, averaging nearly 470 yards per contest.
All this doesn’t bode well for a UCLA team attempting to
keep its slim conference title hopes alive.As the team enters the
toughest portion of its schedule, Patrick Cowan is about to make
his first career start in a place I wouldn’t wish any
quarterback to get his first start.
See, not all the trends favor UCLA.
But are the Bruins for real this season? Five games certainly
weren’t enough to tell. We’ll know better after
Saturday when they face the best team on their schedule so far.
Andrews is the sports editor at the Oregon Daily Emerald.
E-mail him at [email protected] if you spotted a trend he
did not.