After a disastrous special election one year ago, Gov. Arnold
Schwarzenegger’s re-election chances looked dismal. While
Republicans were disappointed that none of the proposed measures
passed, Democrats were furious at the governor for wasting money on
unnecessary elections.
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Preliminary polls with State Treasurer Phil Angelides as the
likely Democratic candidate also did not bode well for
Schwarzenegger ““ Angelides led substantially.
One year later, Schwarzenegger leads every poll and Angelides
belatedly scrambles to shore up any semblance of a Democratic
base.
In a season where Democrats are expected to pick up substantial
gains for the first time in nearly two decades, the Angelides
campaign serves as a sobering reminder of what has gone wrong for
Democrats recently.
By not settling on a clear message, Angelides has allowed
himself to be defined by negative ads. While one of
Angelides’ main goals is to give tax relief to the middle
class, many of his policies would actually end up raising taxes,
though not to the extent that Schwarzenegger claims.
Yet this is beside the point, as Garry South, campaign manager
for Democratic primary challenger Steve Westly, noted after
Angelides won the primary. South predicted that Angelides, lacking
a clear message, would be defined by his tax-raising proposals, no
matter how mild they may have been.
Sure enough, Angelides has struggled to define himself and
hasn’t done enough to put a positive spin on his tax
plan.
The campaign has gotten so desperate that Angelides recently
tried to tie Schwarzenegger to the White House’s
mismanagement of the war, figuring this issue would resonate with
voters.
Instead, California voters overwhelmingly stated in opinion
polls that Iraq should not even be an issue in the race and that
Angelides should focus his campaign on issues that actually have to
do with California.
One of Angelides’ stated plans is to cut the student fees
Schwarzenegger raised. This is completely delusional, unless
Angelides throws a preposterous amount of money at the University
of California ““ fees may have increased, but the increase is
necessary.
With so many other issues worthy of spending money on in
California, cutting student fees is a pipe dream solely intended to
rally student voters.
With all this said, Schwarzenegger is not perfect. The special
elections were an expensive waste of time, and his demeanor and
penchant for calling people “girly men,” not to mention
his alleged groping habit, haven’t helped.
Schwarzenegger has, however, rebounded by going against
Republican policy to support stem-cell research and limit
greenhouse emissions, which won him goodwill with moderate and even
liberal voters.
While there remains the possibility that Schwarzenegger has
swung to the left to appeal to more voters and will go back to
conservative policies in a second term, it bears mentioning that he
has at least done something at all.
Although Schwarzenegger hasn’t delivered on all the
promises he made when he replaced Gray Davis, the state is better
off than it was three years ago, however small the improvement may
be. The temptation among many Democrats is to vote for Angelides to
punish Schwarzenegger rather than to support Angelides himself.
Schwarzenegger may not be perfect, but Angelides would probably
be a step backward.
We don’t know for sure, of course, because after five
months of campaigning, we’re no closer to knowing what
Angelides is really all about.