The timer on the Bruins’ 2024-2025 season is ticking.
And in a month that often teems with upsets, one can never guess how the bracket will shake out. All that matters is performing when it matters most.
“In this tournament a lot of times, 90% of the games, you can shake them up and play them again, (and) it’ll be a different result, so you have to get hot at the right time,” said coach Mick Cronin.
After a one-season hiatus from the NCAA Tournament, UCLA men’s basketball (22-10, 13-7 Big Ten) earned a No. 7 seed and will face No. 10 seed Utah State (26-7, 15-5 Mountain West) in the first round of March Madness at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky, on Thursday evening. The Bruins have lost in the Sweet 16 in three out of their last five tournament runs and were knocked out of the Final Four in 2021 on a buzzer beater from former Gonzaga guard Jalen Suggs.
The Bruins will enter the tournament on the heels of an underwhelming performance in the quarterfinal of the Big Ten tournament, falling by 16 points to eventual runner-up Wisconsin. While the Bruins did no favors for themselves – shooting 32.4% from the field and 30% from beyond the arc – the Badgers tied a Big Ten tournament record with 19 3s through 40 minutes.
On the flip side, Utah State will enter March Madness after dropping the Mountain West tournament championship to Colorado. It garnered two victories over No. 11 seed San Diego State and a December win over No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s during the regular season.
Momentum – while critical to postseason success – pales in comparison to matchups, the most important indicator of March victories.
This season, the Bruins have had difficulty containing against high-powered explosive offenses, as their man-to-man, perimeter defense struggles to contain opposing attacks – most recently evidenced by their loss to the Badgers, whose guards John Blackwell and John Tonje combined for 44 points on 10 3s.
Similarly, UCLA also struggles against towering teams that rely on their frontcourts, evidenced by its loss to Michigan on Jan. 7 – when center Vladislav Goldin dropped 36 points on a 72.2% clip – and by its defeat by Purdue on Feb. 28, when forward Trey Kaufman-Renn produced 29 points on a 73.3% shooting percentage.
“Matchups are really important,” Cronin said. “I’m a big believer in that, and you don’t have time to adjust your matchups. It’s not a seven-game series.”
The Bruins’ matchup issues likely stem from a size and speed imbalance in the frontcourt. Junior forward Tyler Bilodeau, at 6-foot-9, is undersized for the five, while 7-foot-3 sophomore center Aday Mara is too slow to contain quick-footed big men, exposing holes in the team’s defensive scheme.
While the Bruins have conceded big games to teams featuring some of the most proficient big men in the country, their defense remains a cornerstone of their identity. The team ranks 16th in the country in turnovers forced per game and 27th in KenPom defensive efficiency. If UCLA advances past the first round, it’ll face high-powered, explosive SEC offenses in Tennessee if the Volunteers beat No. 15 seed Wofford in their first-round matchup.
“You got to be the toughest team,” said junior guard Skyy Clark. “You got to play really smart. You got to execute on offense. Your defense got to be top notch.”
On Thursday, the Bruins will have to handle guards Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev. The backcourt tandem averages 16.8 and 14.9 points per game, respectively, and both shoot above 44% from the field and 37% from 3, contributing to the Aggies’ 14th-ranked field goal percentage in the nation.
This weekend will grant most Bruins their first taste of the Big Dance – but senior guard Kobe Johnson will make his third tournament run after competing on the big stage in his freshman and sophomore seasons at USC.
“I don’t really have that much experience winning in the NCAA tournament, but I’m definitely getting there,” Johnson said. “That type of atmosphere is different. Every team is going to come out with the best game, and the little details matter. We got to be locked in every single play, every single game, and we got to play a full 40 minutes. That’s what’s going to take.”
Although the Bruins are favored to beat their counterparts Thursday, many don’t expect them to make a deep run in the tournament.
But March is made for upsets, and as the Bruins have repeated, it’s one game at a time.
“We got to win Thursday – you don’t think about anything else. We got to win Thursday,” Cronin said. “All that matters is preparing for Utah State better than we’ve prepared for any team this year. That’s what matters – keeping your focus on that, not on travel, not on tickets, not on where the game’s at.”
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