USC
RPI: 9
Team slash line: .271/.383/.454
Team ERA: 2.75 (1st in NCAA)
Games played vs. top-25 opponents: One
X-factor: Mason Edwards
USC last hosted a regional in 2002.
But the Trojans are in prime position to break that streak.
USC ranks No. 12 by D1 Baseball and in the top 10 by all other major outlets. And the Trojans are slated with the opportunity to prove their pedigree.
This weekend’s series at Jackie Robinson Stadium marks USC’s first three-game series against a top-25 opponent, with its only other ranked matchup coming in a 12-4 midweek loss to No. 16 Oregon State on March 24. USC opened the season with series’ against Pepperdine, Rice and Cal Poly – ranking 241, 62, and 75 in RPI, respectively – and has yet to play a top-five talent in the Big Ten.
Junior left-hander Mason Edwards – the Friday starter – headlines the nation-leading staff, having catapulted himself into first-round consideration for the 2026 MLB Draft in July. His 0.67 ERA and 74 strikeouts both rank second in the NCAA, with his 2.5 hits allowed per nine innings leading the country.
The southpaw has been up to 96 mph while consistently sitting between 92 and 94, boasting 22-plus inches of induced vertical break from a deceptive release. He throws a changeup with a 66% whiff rate, complementing his vertical mix with two strong breaking balls.
Edwards has walked 12.6% of opponents, with six free passes coming against Maryland on March 27 in his most recent outing – though in the rain, and he struck out 10. He has tallied double-digit strikeouts in six of his seven starts.
It is almost impossible to follow on Edwards’ production, but right-hander Grant Govel has given it his best shot as the Saturday starter. The sophomore has walked just five hitters to 46 strikeouts through 45 innings, good for a 1.20 ERA and a 0.64 WHIP that ranks him third in the NCAA.
Mixing a low slot, high-carry fastball around 90-93 mph with an impressive changeup – consistently possessing over 20 inches of horizontal break – on top of strong command, Govel is a top-10 pitcher in the class of 2027. His arsenal and approach are akin to Bruin junior right-hander Logan Reddemann, although four to five miles per hour slower.
“I’ve never had a kid able to manipulate a baseball like that,” USC pitching coach Sean Allen told Baseball America, speaking on Govel’s impressive ability to locate his pitches.
UCLA will face right-hander Andrew Johnson on Sunday, who holds a 2.86 ERA with 40 strikeouts to 16 walks through 34.2 innings pitched. Like Edwards and Govel, Johnson boasts an impressive fastball shape, routinely reaching 24 inches of induced vertical break. However, his primary offspeed is a slider with sharp movement.
Left-hander Sax Matson and right-handers Adam Troy and Gavin Lauridsen have been USC’s go-to relievers.
The Tuesday starter and right-hander Chase Herrell, will also likely be available after throwing 53 pitches in a March 31 win over UC Santa Barbara.
USC’s 2.75 ERA leads the nation, although its 10.2 strikeouts and 4.08 walks per nine innings, ranking No. 35 and No. 78, respectively, may be more indicative of the staff’s true talent.
The Bruins’ lineup will be by far the most talented the Trojans have faced. But UCLA can likely say the same about USC’s weekend rotation, though the margin is smaller.
Six Trojans own an OPS over .900, leading to a team clip of .837, spearheaded by right-fielder Jack Basseer, who is slashing .300/.410/.600. Utility Andrew Lamb and infield Dean Carpentier both join Basseer both with on base rates above .400 and slugging rates over .500.
In Big Ten play, USC averages 7.2 runs per game, ranking fifth in the conference but trailing significantly behind UCLA’s 10.9 mark. The Trojans succeed with impressive control of the strike zone, owning a 12.3% strikeout rate and a league-leading 1.04 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The Trojans have yet to face consistent mid-90s velocity, though, which may be apparent when facing the flamethrowing likes of Reddemann and bullpen arms sophomore right-handers Wylan Moss and Easton Hawk and junior right-handers Cal Randall and Justin Lee.
Both pitching staffs have been dominant in Big Ten competition through 12 games, with UCLA posting 121 strikeouts, 38 walks, a 2.91 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, while USC has put up 120 strikeouts, 50 walks, a 2.57 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.
The ERA discrepancy can be attributed to the Trojans’ .180 opponent batting average. While an impressive mark, it may be unsustainable and driven by an outlier, lucky batting average on balls in play. The Bruins’ strikeout and walk rates are more telling.
USC is a pitching-driven team that may hang around with UCLA if its starters can replicate their prior success against weaker opponents.
However, if the Bruins can force the Trojan starters out of the game early, working beyond the team’s primary four relievers and deep into their bullpen, UCLA may break the series open.
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