This post was updated Oct. 22 at 10:30 p.m.
At the table of College Football Playoff contention, the Bruins might currently be sitting with the biggest stack.
The only undefeated team remaining in either the Big Ten or SEC. The nation’s 20th-best overall defense. Two midseason All-American nominations. Third in ESPN’s Strength of Record Index – ahead of Ohio State, Miami, Indiana, Georgia and Alabama.
But the strength of having a big stack isn’t just about winning the biggest hands. It’s about knowing how to protect it. And – as the great Kenny Rogers would say – you’ve got to know when to hold them and know when to fold them.
Especially when a weaker opponent steps up to the table with nothing to lose.
No. 9 UCLA (6-0, 4-0 Big Ten) will look to keep its cards close and its undefeated record intact when it welcomes Michigan State (2-5, 0-4) to the Rose Bowl for Saturday afternoon’s homecoming contest.
The Bruins enter the matchup fresh off consecutive victories over Oregon and Wisconsin, two programs that have not only historically presented significant challenges for UCLA – but are playoff-level threats themselves. After surviving a 17-15 battle in Eugene on Oct. 10 – the Bruins’ first win at Autzen Stadium since 2004 – they returned to Pasadena and held the Badgers to just seven points in a 17-7 victory.
[Related: Ty Dieffenbach brings winning streak home in UCLA football win over Wisconsin]
For a program that has gone 8-16 in its last two seasons, the undefeated start represents more than an impressive opening stretch. Even through injuries and doubters – including the loss of starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava against the Ducks – an unblemished record has established UCLA as a legitimate contender in the Big Ten title race, with the Bruins now alone atop the conference standings.
With the victory against the Badgers, first-year head coach Bob Chesney became the first head honcho in program history to win their first six games in Westwood, a remarkable accomplishment for a team that entered the season with 55 new players and 19 new coaches. However, as any good card player would advise, Chesney has continually stressed keeping his head down and just focusing on who’s playing right in front of him, continuing to establish a brand of victory centered around striving for pure excellence.
“I’ve never looked at the odds of what a game is or what any of that stuff is,” Chesney said. “We just have to play the opponent that we’ve got to play. The standard doesn’t rise or sink, right? The standard is the standard.”
But while UCLA has continued to climb the national rankings, Michigan State has spent much of its season searching for a consistent streak of good play and good luck. Under first-year head coach Pat Fitzgerald, the Spartans have struggled to turn tight games into victories and are currently riding a five-game losing streak.
The flop and turn have looked great for Michigan State as of late – but that pesky river has continued to give their opponents late-game edges. Last week against then-No. 25 Northwestern, Michigan State was tied at 21 late in the fourth quarter before a blocked field goal and subsequent Northwestern scoring drive handed it another narrow loss. In the week before against Illinois, a touchdown pass on their first play of overtime gave Michigan State the confidence to go for two – but a stout Illini stop sent Sparty and Co. with their hats held low.
Fitzgerald has relied on quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, who has thrown for 1,263 yards and seven touchdowns, alongside running back Jaziun Patterson, who leads the team with 327 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns, to carry on his old school, grind-it-out offensive mentality. However, the Spartans have struggled to consistently move the football, averaging just 310.7 total yards and 21.3 points per game – both of which rank near the bottom of the FBS in team efficiency.
And against a UCLA defense that has made a habit of disrupting opposing offenses, those struggles could prove particularly costly.
The Bruins enter Saturday allowing just 16.2 points and 97.7 rushing yards per game, with defensive coordinator Colin Hitschler’s unit repeatedly demonstrating its ability to control the line of scrimmage and force turnovers – 19 so far this year. Anchored by a physical and versatile linebacking corps featuring senior Sammy Omosigho, sophomore Scott Taylor and fifth-year Jalen Woods, UCLA has consistently made life difficult for opposing rushing attacks and forced offenses into uncomfortable passing situations, especially on third downs.
“We have been doing a good job covering on the back end, and we’ve been able to get some pressure, and they’re doing a great job of communicating and executing,” Hitschler said. “So far it’s been a strength for us.”
Offensively, UCLA has found similar success without relying heavily on its passing attack. Despite losing Iamaleava, the Bruins have continued to lean on a versatile rushing offense led by fifth-year running back Wayne Knight and offensive coordinator Dean Kennedy.
Knight enters Saturday with 571 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, with UCLA as a team averaging 231 rushing yards per game – good for 12th nationally. But the Bruins’ rushing success extends well beyond their leading back. Fifth-year Anthony Woods and senior Jaivian Thomas have provided Kennedy with additional weapons capable of attacking defenses through a variety of formations, while the offense’s reliance on pre-snap movement, personnel versatility and Wildcat concepts has made predicting where the football will go increasingly difficult.
“If you just abandon the run game or you abandon the pass game, they can hone in on one individual piece,” Kennedy said. “We’re not going to abandon either side of it.”
And with senior quarterback Ty Dieffenbach now commanding the offense, UCLA has shown little interest in abandoning the identity that carried it through the opening weeks of the season. Dieffenbach helped guide the Bruins to victory over Wisconsin in his first start and has now racked up a comfortable 307 passing yards on the season so far with one touchdown and one interception.
While Michigan State’s record suggests Saturday should be one of UCLA’s more manageable challenges after two formidable ones, the Bruins have little reason to overlook a conference opponent capable of turning close games into upsets.
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