After a last-second cancellation a year ago, No. 17 UCLA football will officially be bowl bound for the first time since 2017 – but where the Bruins will go is still to be determined. Senior staff writer Jon Christon breaks down UCLA’s potential bowl game scenarios ahead of Friday’s Pac-12 championship game between No. 4 USC and No. 11 Utah, a contest with major conference postseason implications.
Pac-12 possibilities
College Football Playoff semifinal: Jan. 1
Rose Bowl: Jan. 2, Pac-12 vs. Big Ten
Alamo Bowl: Dec. 29, Pac-12 vs. Big 12
Holiday Bowl: Dec. 28, Pac-12 vs. ACC
Las Vegas Bowl: Dec. 17, Pac-12 vs. SEC
Sun Bowl: Dec. 30, Pac-12 vs. ACC
LA Bowl: Dec. 17, Pac-12 vs. Mountain West
Stipulations
The Rose Bowl will go to the Pac-12’s No. 1 selection unless that team is in the College Football Playoff, in which case the bowl committee will get to choose among the conference’s next best teams. Similarly, the Alamo, Holiday and Las Vegas Bowls will also get their choice of Pac-12 teams that are within one game of each other in the conference standings. The LA Bowl is locked into the Pac-12’s No. 6 selection.
College Football Playoff
Unlike three weeks ago, the CFP is no longer on the table for the Bruins.
Rose Bowl
For most of the season, “The Granddaddy of Them All” was seriously in play for the blue and gold.
That is, until UCLA lost two of its final three games to finish the campaign. Now, the Bruins – currently tied for fifth place in the conference – are on the outside looking in from playing in their home stadium one final time.
Utah or No. 12 Washington will most likely be playing in Pasadena to begin 2023. While USC is the Pac-12’s best team, it will be playing in the CFP with a victory Friday. The Huskies, in turn, would be the most appealing option should the Trojans win the conference as the presumed next highest-ranked Pac-12 team.
If Utah beats USC on Friday though, the Utes will lock up their second straight Rose Bowl appearance.
Either way, UCLA will not be ending its season at home.
Alamo Bowl
This is where things get interesting for the blue and gold.
At first glance, the Alamo Bowl may seem far fetched. It is typically reserved for the Pac-12’s No. 2 team, after all, and UCLA is the Pac-12’s fifth-ranked team.
However, there is a scenario in which the Bruins are the logical pick for the bowl committee.
If Utah were to lose Friday – perhaps in blowout fashion – it would change the calculus a bit. As previously stated, USC would make the CFP and Washington the Rose Bowl. That leaves Utah, No. 15 Oregon State, No. 16 Oregon and UCLA next in line for a trip to San Antonio.
While many think the Utes would have the upper hand, they would be coming off a loss, have a worse overall record than the Bruins at 9-4 and lose the head-to-head battle after their loss in Pasadena in October. The Ducks seem like another logical pick, but they played in the Alamo Bowl in 2021, and typically committees don’t want repeat suitors – especially after the bowl served as the backdrop for the program’s coaching drama a year ago.
Then it comes down to UCLA and Oregon State. While the Beavers rank higher than the Bruins in the CFP rankings, the Alamo Bowl would get the discretion since the two teams are tied in the conference standings. It’s not impossible to think the committee would opt for the bigger brand in UCLA – especially if historic powerhouse Texas is on the other end.
If the Bruin faithful want a trip to San Antonio, they may have to cheer for their crosstown rivals to win big Friday night.
Holiday Bowl
UCLA has a better chance of making the Rose Bowl than the Holiday Bowl after last year’s no show.
In other words, the Bruins will not be playing in San Diego in late December.
Las Vegas Bowl
Playing in the gambling capital of the world is certainly on the table for the blue and gold. In fact, it’s probably the most likely outcome.
While the Las Vegas Bowl typically plays host to the conference’s No. 4 selection, USC’s placement in either the CFP or a New Year’s Six Bowl positions the Bruins right in line with the Sin City’s bowl.
As outlined in the previous scenarios, a USC win would likely leave four Pac-12 teams eligible for the Alamo and Holiday Bowls. Should those respective bowl committees pass on the Bruins – the lowest ranked of the four – it’ll leave two teams up for grabs to play in Vegas.
Given UCLA’s ties to Vegas – redshirt senior quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s hometown – and its proximity to Nevada, the Bruins should be the committee’s top choice.
A Utah win Friday night wouldn’t change much. With the Utes in the Rose Bowl and the Trojans in a NY6 bowl, Washington would likely slide in ahead of UCLA for the Alamo Bowl with only two losses. With the Holiday Bowl off the table, the Bruins would then be one of two teams up for selection for Vegas and would remain the top choice.
While it may seem like a consolation prize for the blue and gold, few Bruin fans would turn down a trip to Vegas.
Sun Bowl
Tony the Tiger is lurking.
And if UCLA gets passed over for the Alamo and Las Vegas Bowls, he’ll have no choice but to snatch up the Bruins for his Sun Bowl.
The Sun Bowl is the absolute floor among the blue and gold’s realistic options. For this to happen, the Rose, Alamo, Holiday and Vegas Bowls would all be occupied by the bunch of Utah, Washington, Oregon and Oregon State, with UCLA the last of the quintet.
If the Bruins’ brand doesn’t negate the team’s lower ranking, UCLA will be heading to El Paso for the first time since 2013.
LA Bowl
Washington State already has this spot locked up as the Pac-12’s No. 6 selection.
Christon’s pick(s):
1. Las Vegas Bowl vs. Ole Miss, Dec. 17
2. Alamo Bowl vs. Texas, Dec. 29
3. Sun Bowl vs. North Carolina State, Dec. 30
It would be only fitting for Thompson-Robinson to end his college career in his hometown – should he not opt out of postseason play.
Bowl committees certainly care about storylines, and the hometown kid returning for one final game is certainly a big one. Add in the intrigue of matching up against former USC coach Lane Kiffin in a battle of two top offenses, and this seems like a match made in heaven.
A Utah upset makes this scenario more likely, but it can happen regardless of the outcome of the Pac-12 championship game Friday. Mississippi State, Kentucky, Florida and No. 14 LSU are also possible matchups here for UCLA.
Although it can only happen with a USC win Friday, an Alamo Bowl berth is next up.
With No. 3 TCU and No. 10 Kansas State all but locking up CFP and NY6 berths, respectively, Texas would almost assuredly be UCLA’s opponent in a matchup of two big brands in San Antonio.
Finally, a Sun Bowl appearance is last on the table, coming down to the preferences of the bowl committees. Undoubtedly, the most fun matchup in El Paso would be against North Carolina State, as Wolfpack coaches and players did not mince words on how they felt about the Bruins’ last second-cancellation a year ago.
Other possible Sun Bowl opponents would be Duke, Louisville, Syracuse and Wake Forest.
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