This post was updated Dec. 29 at 12:23 p.m.
UCLA men’s basketball (5-6) begins its final season of conference play in the Pac-12 against Oregon State (8-3) on Thursday night. Senior staff writer Jack Nelson gives his five main takeaways from the Bruins’ trek through nonconference play.
F for finish
Fatal flaws are not exclusive to literary characters. They often also manifest in the world of college basketball.
The Bruins have one – when closing time arrives, they fold.
Seven of their 11 nonconference bouts were decided by nine points or less, and they dropped six of them. The lone win was a 66-65 escape act against UC Riverside that required a game-winning jumper with three seconds left.
Late-game battles have become the norm. While the Bruins have lost their last four games by nine, seven, four and nine points, respectively, all of their previous six have ended with a single-digit margin of difference.
At first, narrow losses held promise.
UCLA entered this season without four of its five starters or any of its top five scorers from last year. Even with an influx of international talent, few expected the young squad to keep pace with high-caliber competition.
Then, facing some of its toughest opponents of the regular season, UCLA fell by two and four points to then-No. 4 Marquette and then-No. 11 Gonzaga, respectively. It appeared that with some improved shooting and a fortified defense, the Bruins could be a surprise contender.
But further close contests told a different tale.
Facing lesser opponents, the Bruins stagnated down the stretch, failing to stand tall on defense and seeing no clutch shooters emerge. Against Cal State Northridge and Maryland, UCLA began to claw its way back from deficits of 19 points or more, but it couldn’t convert comebacks into triumphs.
What remains is the program’s first losing nonconference record in nearly fifteen years.
Triple tragedy
Long gone are the days of David Singleton and Tyger Campbell lighting it up from beyond the arc.
Entering Pac-12 play, UCLA has cemented itself as one of the worst teams in the country when it comes to 3-point shooting, standing No. 310 among 351 Division I programs in 3-point percentage.
Only four Bruins have double-digit attempts to their name thus far, and only one is shooting above 40%. That would be redshirt sophomore guard Will McClendon, who ironically was the team’s worst option from deep a season ago.
When taking McClendon’s 12-for-29 contribution out of the equation, UCLA’s teamwide 29.4% mark drops to 26.9%, which would be good for No. 341 nationally.
Struggles have reached an all-time low during the Bruins’ four-game losing streak. The team is just 18-for-67 on 3-pointers in that span, including abysmal 1-for-14 and 1-for-10 performances against Maryland and Ohio State, respectively.
Coach Mick Cronin brought in a flock of eight newcomers to help replace lost sharpshooter production, but they simply haven’t produced. Only one – junior guard Lazar Stefanovic – holds a 3-point percentage exceeding 30%.
Even with Cronin’s stout defense-first philosophy, quality shooters are a must in college basketball these days.
The Bruins don’t have enough of them.
Surprising Sebastian
As the season’s beginning approached, forward/center Adem Bona and guard Dylan Andrews – a pair of sophomores – played the favorites for UCLA’s best player.
Neither of them have earned that title.
Instead, Sebastian Mack has stolen the show, averaging a team-high 15.2 points per game across nine starts.
The freshman guard has tallied eight double-digit scoring performances, twice surpassing the 20-point plateau against Marquette and CSUN.
He has attempted more field goals and earned more free throws than any other Bruin while averaging the third-most minutes per game among his teammates.
A relentless brand of basketball has been his formula for success. With an eager attitude reminiscent of Andrews, Mack drives to the rim with quickness and tries to get off a shot however possible, often resorting to hero ball.
That hasn’t made him a selfless player, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing, considering the offensive struggles of those around him.
Often sharing the court with Andrews in the starting lineup, Mack has even outplayed his mentor from time to time. And if he develops the matured decision-making that Andrews already displays, the two could become one of the Pac-12’s more formidable duos.
Vexed veteran
With so much roster turnover, Bona was the cornerstone of continuity – the only remaining starter from last season.
But when it comes to dishing out blame for the team’s sluggish start, there’s reason to point to him.
Bona, who struggled with personal fouls as a freshman, has been a foul machine as of late. He has fouled out in three of the team’s last five contests, and on three other occasions, he has come within one of being sentenced to the bench.
The lack of discipline from the Bruins’ top big man has forced Cronin’s hand more frequently than he would like, with freshman center Aday Mara and redshirt fifth-year forward/center Kenneth Nwuba inserted into action on a regular basis. Mara possesses talent and little experience while Nwuba is much the contrary, but both struggle to hold their own under the rim.
Cronin has said this is Bona’s team, and he expects him to lead accordingly. Perhaps it’s a symptom of being thrust into leadership at such a young age, but at least on the court, Bona hasn’t been the leader the Bruins need.
Their survival moving forward may come down to whether he steps up.
March mystery
Right now, there is no reason to believe UCLA is destined for March Madness.
In the NET rankings – the primary tool for evaluating teams – it currently sits at No. 172, well outside the top 68 projected to make the NCAA tournament field.
And it’s easy to see why. At 5-6, the Bruins have zero quality wins to their name and a bad loss to boot.
UCLA’s top win came against No. 255 UC Riverside – who it beat by one point at home – while its other four victories came against No. 341 Saint Francis, No. 346 Long Island, No. 347 Lafayette and Division II Chaminade. Falling to No. 177 CSUN didn’t exactly help.
The only boost to UCLA’s resume involves close losses to Marquette and Gonzaga. But if the Bruins end up on the outside looking in, having that as their only card to play will just be a recipe for an NIT berth.
This team needs a midseason surge with a string of quality wins just to have a decent shot at hearing its name called on Selection Sunday. Or, it could try and pull off a miraculous Pac-12 tournament championship and guarantee itself a spot.
Whether the Bruins accomplish either will come down to Cronin and how he builds back a group that has lost belief in itself.
He hasn’t missed the NCAA tournament since 2010, but if Cronin can’t find a way to rally the troops, it won’t just be the country’s longest home winning streak that snaps this season.
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